[SMM Steel Market Morning News] Gasoline Prices Expected to Rise Sharply, Filling Up a Tank May Cost 25 Yuan More

★Macro★

01 ★★★ [Finished Oil Prices Set to Rise Sharply: Filling a Tank May Cost 25 Yuan More]

According to oil price information, domestic finished oil prices may rise at 24:00 on July 1, with gasoline and diesel expected to increase by 600 yuan per mt, equivalent to 0.49-0.51 yuan per liter. Calculating based on this, filling a 50-liter tank of 92# gasoline would cost 24-25 yuan more.

Currently, 92# gasoline prices have generally rebounded to over 7 yuan per liter in many regions across China. If this price hike takes effect, 92# gasoline may enter the 7.5-7.7 yuan/liter range nationwide, while 95# gasoline would enter the "8 yuan era."

02 ★★ [Global Economic and Trade Friction Index Up 37.6% YoY in April]

On the morning of June 27, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) held a press conference releasing April's global economic and trade friction index. Data shows the value involved in global economic and trade friction measures surged 37.6% YoY in April. Among 20 monitored countries/regions, the US, Japan, and India ranked top three in friction intensity, with the US involving the highest value for 10 consecutive months.

CCPIT spokesperson Linjie Wang introduced that across 13 monitored industries, friction conflicts concentrated in electronics, transportation equipment, light industry, chemicals, machinery equipment, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture, with electronics ranking first.

★Industry & Downstream★

01 ★★  [H1 Residential Land Transfer Revenue in 300 Cities Up Over 20% YoY]

Preliminary statistics from China Index Academy show that as of June 25, residential land transfer revenue in 300 cities grew 24.5% YoY in H1 2025, with average premium rate reaching 10.3%, up 6.2 percentage points YoY. Land acquisitions became more concentrated, with TOP20 cities accounting for 66% of national revenue.

In Q1, Beijing, Hangzhou, and Chengdu repeatedly broke land price records, driving the average premium rate in 300 cities to 18% in March. However, since Q2, land market has cooled somewhat due to reduced core plot supply and cautious corporate investments, with average premium rates pulling back.

02 ★★ [Report: Real Estate Firms' Overall Performance Stabilized in H1]

According to a report by CRIC Research Center, real estate enterprises' overall performance stabilized after a decline in H1 2025, with some companies' results significantly recovering. January-May, nearly 45% of the top 100 real estate enterprises reported cumulative performance growth YoY, with 20 companies posting increases exceeding 30%.

Overall, signs of stabilization are emerging in the property market. However, as homebuyer confidence and expectations remain in recovery, coupled with persistently rising inventory pressure among developers, the sector continues to face significant challenges, necessitating proactive responses.

03★★[Global Crude Steel Production Reached 1.8846 Billion mt in 2024]

The World Steel Association's recent "World Steel in Figures 2025" report showed global crude steel production declined 1.0% YoY to 1.8846 billion mt in 2024. China's output fell 2.3% YoY to 1.0051 billion mt, reducing its global share from 54.0% in 2023 to 53.3%.

Production method-wise, converter steel accounted for 70.4% of global output (down 0.7 percentage points YoY), while electric furnace steel represented 29.1% (up 0.5 points). The global continuous casting ratio remained stable at 97.5%. Global steel exports (finished + semi-finished products) rose 5.1% YoY to 449.2 million mt, representing 25.5% of production (up 1.5 points).

Apparent consumption of finished steel products globally decreased 2.0% YoY to 1.7424 billion mt, with varying trends among reporting countries. China's consumption dropped 5.4% from 905.1 million mt in 2023 to 856.6 million mt, reducing its global share to 49.2% (down 1.7 points).

04★★[Canada Imposes 50% Tariff on Steel Imports Exceeding Quotas]

The Canadian government announced a 50% tariff on steel imports exceeding quotas from countries without free trade agreements with Ottawa. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne stated: "Today we implemented new tariffs on steel imports from non-FTA countries.

The quota is set at 2.6 million mt, with 50% surcharges applied to imports above 2024 levels." The measure took effect on June 27, 2025, subject to review after 30 days. The Canadian government statement also noted that imposing additional tariffs on steel imports exceeding the quota is a temporary measure aimed at stabilizing the Canadian market and eliminating the risk of steel originally planned for export to the US being diverted back to Canada.

05★★★[Steel Industry Profits Reach 31.69 Billion Yuan, January-May]

From January to May 2025, China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 2.72 trillion yuan, down 1.1% YoY.

During this period, state-owned holding enterprises posted profits of 870.95 billion yuan (down 7.4% YoY), joint-stock enterprises 2.017 trillion yuan (down 1.5%), foreign-funded and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan-funded enterprises 685.68 billion yuan (up 0.3%), and private enterprises 759.25 billion yuan (up 3.4%).

By sector, mining recorded profits of 358.04 billion yuan (down 29.0% YoY), manufacturing 2.020 trillion yuan (up 5.4%), and electricity/heat/gas/water production and supply 342.25 billion yuan (up 3.7%).

The ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing industry generated 31.69 billion yuan in profits during January-May.

With January-April profits for this sector at 16.92 billion yuan, May alone contributed 14.77 billion yuan in steel industry profits.

★Other Hot Topics★

⭕[Widespread Heatwave Expected in Mid-Eastern China Next Week, Local Temperatures Exceeding 40℃]Due to cold air and rainy weather, China's high-temperature zones shrank significantly today, with north-east China and the Sichuan Basin seeing relief. However, influenced by the westward extension of the subtropical high, from tomorrow to July 5, regions including mid-eastern Jiangnan, mid-eastern South China, JAC, eastern Jianghan, and eastern Huanghuai will experience sustained temperatures above 35℃. Particularly after July 2, high temperatures in south China will gradually expand in scope and intensity, with local maximums exceeding 40℃.

⭕[MOFCOM Spokesperson's Remarks on US Tariff Negotiations with Relevant Countries]Q: Recently, US officials stated they are accelerating negotiations with certain economies and may reach trade agreements with some countries before the 90-day "reciprocal tariff" suspension period ends on July 9. For countries without agreements, unilateral tariff rates may be imposed. What's MOFCOM's comment?

A: Since April this year, the US has imposed so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on global trading partners. This constitutes typical unilateral bullying, severely impacting the multilateral trading system and disrupting normal international trade order. In response, China has consistently and firmly opposed this. Practice has proven that only by resolutely safeguarding our principles and positions can we truly protect our own legitimate rights and interests.

China is pleased to see all parties resolve economic and trade disputes with the United States through equal consultations. At the same time, we call on all parties to always stand on the side of fairness and justice, and on the right side of history, resolutely safeguarding international economic and trade rules and the multilateral trading system. China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests in exchange for so-called tariff reductions. If such a situation arises, China will never accept it and will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own legitimate rights and interests.